Content first, AI first

In his new analysis, Michael Schrader, CEO of VNR Group Deutschland, argues that German trade media is growing rather than in crisis, but that AI is rapidly reshaping the rules of the market. His central thesis is that "Content First" and "AI First" are inseparable: AI without verified content behind it is an empty promise, and excellent content that isn't embedded in the customer's workflow never reaches its potential.

He sets out a solid starting position. German trade media generated €8.75 billion in 2025, up 2.5 percent; digital overtook print in 2022 and now accounts for 48 percent of revenue, while events grew nearly 10 percent. Print, however, continues to decline by around 5 percent a year, and the pace of change is accelerating.

According to Schrader, AI will not make content worthless — instead it raises the value of what specialist publishers do best: primary research, deep niche expertise, current case law, liability-safe interpretation, and the opinions and best practices of experienced practitioners. He notes that VNR's editors are themselves practitioners (lawyers, tax advisers, HR managers), and that teams drawing on primary sources not yet in AI training data create content no one can copy. He cites industry data showing 75 percent of trade media houses rank content quality as their top value factor, ahead of market expertise, trust, and technology.

A key argument is the shift from selling content to selling decision support. Customers pay not for text but for what it enables — a better decision or a faster, safer work step. Schrader illustrates this with an assistant embedded in a tax adviser's software that retrieves relevant case law and delivers audit-proof assessments; the content behind it is invisible but decisive. He points out that subscriptions and licences already make up 59 percent of digital revenue industry-wide, and over 90 percent at VNR.

He highlights trade media's distinctive "push" strength — delivering relevant impulses before customers search for them — and argues this can be translated into digital products and AI-enabled personalization, replacing one magazine for all with a tailored briefing for each reader.

On revenue, Schrader foresees the classic subscription becoming part of a broader portfolio of five interlocking streams: subscriptions (including hybrid models with bookable human experts), machine access via per-use APIs, enterprise licences, community and edutainment, and new contextual advertising formats. On costs, he stresses that 2025's growth barely exceeded inflation, so efficiency matters; AI can absorb routine work such as summaries, translation, and monitoring.

Looking to 2030, he expects print-only models, advertising as a primary revenue source, and the classic ePaper to lose their economic basis — while demand for reliable interpretation and decision support rises. He identifies four risks: a "transformation valley" where old revenues fall before new ones are built, platform dependence on gatekeepers, the make-or-buy question (VNR builds its own AI platform but aims to share it with other publishers), and the scarcity of technology talent and cultural readiness to change. He also frames AI-assisted translation as an expansion lever that could carry German expertise abroad — but equally let international players enter the German market.

Schrader concludes that language models are available to everyone, so what cannot be replicated is the combination of exclusive domain knowledge, a trusted brand, a strong community, and the editorial ability to turn knowledge into real value. Content First and AI First, he maintains, depend on each other, and the coming years will show which publishers manage to bring both together.